by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
GDP estimates for third and fourth quarter are now in a free-fall.
Last Friday the FRBNY Nowcast was in a blackout period because of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Today we see estimates tor the last two weeks. Let’s also take a look at my guess of the estimates vs. how the estimates came in.
September 23, 2016 Nowcast Highlights
- The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.3% and 1.2% for 2016:Q3 and 2016:Q4, respectively.
- Negative news since the report was last published two weeks ago pushed the nowcast down 0.5 percentage point for both Q3 and Q4.
- The largest negative contributions over the last two weeks came from manufacturing, retail sales, and housing and construction data.
3rd Quarter Nowcast vs. GDPNow