by David Kranzler
Investment Research Dynamics
As I detailed yesterday – LINK – yesterday’s new home sales report was complete fiction. Notwithstanding all of the other statistical manipulations that go into the Government’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate of sales metric, including flawed data sampling, Mark Hanson – who does cutting edge housing market analysis – reduced yesterday’s new home sales report to its essence:
A rounded 4,000 more homes sold on a Not Seasonally Adjusted basis than in June, ALL from the Southern region. This added up to a massive 72,000 month to month and 114,000 year over year Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate surge and headlines of “9-year highs,” all due to bogus seasonal adjustments that should not have applied due to the number of weekends in the month…” – Mark Hanson, M Hanson Advisors
The 4,000 more homes sold in the South month to month more than likely results from flawed data collection, for which the Census Bureau is notorious.