Here’s Evidence the Fed is Unlikely to Hike Rates Before Election Day

Fed’s history suggests no changes at September or November meetings

by Mark Hulbert
Market Watch

Does the Federal Reserve play politics? You could just as well ask if the Pope is Catholic.

Investors should be wondering about the Fed’s politics because its interest-rate setting committee will meet two more times before Election Day — Sept. 20-21 and Nov. 1-2.

What the Fed decides to do at those meetings could have enormous political consequences, if you assume that a rate hike would cause the stock market to sell off, and that a higher stock market would translate into better odds for the Democratic Party. Both assumptions have strong historical support.

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