by Andrew Zatlin
The Vice Index indicates a sharp downturn in retail spending… beginning in the fourth quarter (October.)
Regular Moneyball readers know the Vice Index is the best way to gauge the American consumer. It’s proprietary research I conduct to track discretionary spending in real-time.
And the Vice Index is telling us that retail spending is about to drop off sharply. That’s only likely if wage growth slows sharply. After all, retail spending is determined mostly by wage growth (You can see how retail spending is positively correlated with wages.)