by BCA Research
Financial Sense
Policy uncertainty will remain elevated, putting upward pressure on risk premiums. The upside of uncertainty is that monetary and perhaps even fiscal policy will be looser than otherwise would be the case. That is a plus for stocks, but may cushion downside risks more so than propel capital appreciation in the absence of stronger global growth.
[…] Deficient global aggregate final demand remains the defining characteristic of the global economy, given high debt loads and ongoing private sector deleveraging in the developed world. The developing world may need to undergo a similar fate. Policy is already extremely easy, but has been unable to spur much growth. Global trade remains very weak.
US companies are already having difficulty generating sales growth. Inflation expectations have plunged, and are an excellent leading indicator for actual corporate sector pricing power.