from Bill Still
lass=”” >Yesterday’s results from the USC-LA Times Daybreak poll show a bounce for Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump now leads by 6.1% – 46.7 Trump, to 40.6% Clinton.
Yesterday Trump came within less than one percentage point of piercing the gray inevitability area on the topside, but we assume that after a few days of Clinton gains, Trump will again show gains.
The Daybreak Poll is part of USC’s “Understanding America Study. We cannot be sure this poll is completely free of bias, but the sample is large and well, controlled and the methodology is unique.
The sample size is about 4500 U.S. residents who were randomly selected from among all households in the United States. Members of recruited households who did not have internet access were provided with tablets and internet service.
The Understanding America study then asks these panel members if they would like to participate in answering questions about the election. So far, more than 3200 have agreed. Each day, 1/7th of them – over 450 per day – are asked 3 questions:
What is the percent chance that :
1. you will vote in the presidential election?
2. if you were to vote, you will vote for Trump, Clinton or someone else?
3. I predict that Clinton, Trump or someone else will win?
The order of the candidates are randomized because older studies have shown as much as a 5% advantage for the first candidate appearing on a ballot.
The study group then weights the likelihood that this panel member will actually vote, based on 2012 presidential election data.
We like this poll – so far. We like the transparency of the methodology. It is nationwide, so it will be less predictive than state polling which tracks the candidates based on the Electoral College races, but it gives the political pulse of the direction of American voters.
To read more about the Daybreak poll, see:
election.us.edu
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.