by Rick Ackerman
Although I’ve projected substantially higher prices for the stock market, I’m keeping one foot on the fire escape. Monday’s price action raised a yellow flag in the form of a downtrend in the E-Mini S&Ps that overshot a technical target. Also, crude prices declined again, adding more uncertainty to a global banking system that has gone all-in on energy loans. There was some scary ray-rah stuff in the Wall Street Journal too, including a very unpersuasive Heard on the Street column saying we should expect much better earnings this quarter because they will be going up against horrendous pro forma earnings from a year ago. Even less persuasive was a think-piece by one Steve Russolillo saying investors should breathe a sigh of relief now that we know who the presidential candidates will be. I used to think the election would have zero impact on the stock market, but I’m no longer so sure. From a geopolitical and economic standpoint, these time are far too ‘interesting’ for voters to have to choose in November between a truly appalling candidate and another who, improbably, is even more appalling.