Durable Goods Add To The Idea of Depression (Small ‘d’)

by Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Partners

There wasn’t anything new or surprising in the advance durable goods report. Shipments (ex transportation) were flat and orders were up 1% year-over-year (NSA). Capital goods (non-defense, ex aircraft) shipments fell 3.4%, the tenth straight month of contraction, while new orders were down again (2.6%) for the sixteenth time out of the past nineteen months. The slump only continues.

[…] With last month’s benchmark revisions, however, we have a much better view of the overall slowdown. It increasingly appears as if there were not separate slumps divided by a late 2013/early 2014 rebound but rather a single, unbroken mess. The removal of the upward resumption in especially 2014 leaves the trajectory mostly flat, with minor deviations around that baseline.

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