by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Think recessions begin when GDP is negative? Think 2 quarters of negative growth are required to start a recession?
If you believe either of those, you are wrong.
The NBER is the official arbiter of recessions in the US. Here’s a list of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contraction Dates by the NBER.
Using start dates I created the following chart.