Who Kidding Who

This time, on what can only be called a horrid report, they didn’t do anything but rescue the morning session from being deep red. That’s an interesting change.

by Bob Rinear
The International Forecaster

On Friday we got the non farm payroll report. On the first Friday of every month we get a reading concerning the prior months job hiring’s. They discuss the breakdown of where the jobs came from, the sectors, the pay changes, etc. It really is a deep report.

[…] Well, this month the spinner head economists were all on board for the economy to have created 205 – 220,000 jobs. Well, at 8:30 am, we got the results and it was a “swing and a miss”. According to OFFICIAL Government bean counters, we got 160,000 jobs. So right off the bat, the “experts” missed the estimates by about 24%. In any other profession other than weather forecasting, they’d be fired.

But okay, lets run with it for a minute. They say 160K jobs were created. Were they really? Well let’s look at some other data points. The “household” survey, gave us a much different picture. So first, what’s the difference?

The Current Population Survey (CPS) is based on household interviews conducted each month by the U.S. Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics and provides comprehensive data on the labor force, including those who are employed and unemployed. The data are further classified by age, sex, family relationship and marital status.

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