Two Years Too Late The Yield Curve Becomes Interesting

by Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Partners

The US Treasury yield curve is flattening again, with parts finally in 2016 surpassing the bearishness exhibited to start 2015. The mainstream is just now starting to notice likely because unlike last year there are no longer credible excuses to simply wish it away. “Transitory” is not a word you find much anymore, replaced instead by reluctant and forced acknowledgement that there is real economic peril here.

Bearishness in the yield curve is not something new, however, only the notice of it. While risks to the economy are part of this shift in commentary, the Federal Reserve’s haplessness is as well.

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