by Paul-Martin Foss
A new ECB white paper has found evidence that many major market-moving data releases in the US are leaked in advance of their official publication, allowing some investors to profit from trading stocks and Treasury securities when those data are released. Included among the data releases studied are two from the Federal Reserve Board, on industrial production and consumer credit. The researchers analyzed price movements in the S&P 500 futures market and the 10-year Treasury Note futures market in the thirty minutes prior to these data releases, assuming that strong price movements in the direction of the eventual post-release price were indicative of some sort of leak. The industrial production release was one of seven releases that was strongly suspected of being leaked. This isn’t good news for the Fed.