Princeton Professor Projects Trump has 70% Chance of Winning Primary; Nate Silver on Trump’s Dwindling Chances; Silver vs. Mish

by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk

Based on current polls, Princeton professor Sam Wang projects Donald Trump Will Win the Republican Nomination with a median of 1,356 delegates, 119 more than he needs at the convention.

Wang tweeted …

[…] How did Wang arrive at such an incredible prediction?

Invalid Use of National Surveys

According to Wang, “A central problem is therefore how to construct the natural variation in state-to-state support. This can be done using national surveys, based on the fact that the national average contains respondents drawn from across the U.S.”

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