by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Based on current polls, Princeton professor Sam Wang projects Donald Trump Will Win the Republican Nomination with a median of 1,356 delegates, 119 more than he needs at the convention.
Wang tweeted …
[…] How did Wang arrive at such an incredible prediction?
Invalid Use of National Surveys
According to Wang, “A central problem is therefore how to construct the natural variation in state-to-state support. This can be done using national surveys, based on the fact that the national average contains respondents drawn from across the U.S.”