Predicting Recession

by Carl Tannenbaum
Financial Sense

Relax … the title of this segment is not meant to suggest that we think a downturn is imminent. Recessions are rare, and forecasting one is extremely difficult. And if I were to make such a bold prediction, senior management might make it my last.

Nonetheless, economic surveys are reflecting a higher possibility that a recession could begin in the next 12 months. The odds are still modest: 17%, according to the latest Blue Chip survey. But these readings normally hover at 5% or less. Risks to the outlook have certainly risen since the start of the year.

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