by Kurt Kallaus
US and Canadian oil production rose at a parabolic rate for 4 years ending in June 2015. While Canadian supplies may have plateaued and remain near record levels, US output began a longer term decline that we are certain will continue throughout 2016 and beyond.
A 10% US supply drop will turn into a 15% reduction by year end 2016 as the rate of daily production falls from 9.6 million barrels a day (mbd) to 8.1-8.4 mbd. More impressively, almost a third of the parabolic surge in supply over the previous 4 years will have been erased.