by Dwaine van Vuuren
The strength of the labor market is constantly being trotted out in defense of the robust status of the US economy, but broad sets of labor data show this not to be the case.
First, let us examine a very broad US labor market growth metric:
[…] This indicator needs to fall below -10 before the odds of recession skyrocket to a near certainty and so whilst there is no cause for immediate alarm, it is clear the indicator is not exactly shooting the lights out and has probably peaked. As it is a leading indicator, it is telling us that further gains in the labor market are likely to be muted going into Summer.
Another useful broad Labor market indicator is the Conference Boards’ Employment Trends Index (ETI):