by Urban Carmel
Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to point to positive but sluggish growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.
The main positives are in employment, consumption growth and housing:
- Employment growth is close to the best since the 1990s, with an average monthly gain of 234,000 during the past year. Full-time employment is soaring.
- Recent compensation growth is the highest in more than 6 years: 2.7% in December, dropping to 2.3% yoy in March.
- Most measures of demand show 3-4% nominal growth. Real personal consumption growth in February was 2.8%.
- New housing sales, starts, and permits remain near an 8 year high.
- The core inflation rate ticked up above 2% and to the highest rate since 2008.
The main negatives are concentrated in the manufacturing sector (which accounts for just 10% of GDP):