US Inflation Rears Its Ugly Head as Global Cycle Nears Danger Zone

Markets are betting the Fed will not be able to raise rates four times this year but US policymakers are on a war against inflation

by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The trigger for the next global recession is at last coming into view after a series of loud distractions and false alarms.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s gauge of “sticky-price” inflation in the US soared to a post-Lehman peak of 3pc in February. This index is a ‘pure’ measure of core inflation – the underlying story once the noise is stripped out.

The Cleveland’s Fed’s ‘median consumer price index’ jumped to 2.9pc, with big rises are in medical services, housing rents, car insurance, restaurants, hotels, women’s clothing, jewelry, and car hire. This is the long-feared inflexion point we all forgot about in those halcyon days of deflation, now just a fond memory.

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