Nate Silver’s Incredulous Wisconsin Primary Odds

by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk

Based on a single recent poll in which Cruz leads Trump by a single percentage point, Nate Silver somehow concludes in his “Polls-Plus” Forecast that “Ted Cruz has an 81% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary.

Precisely One Relevant Poll

[…] In the only other weighted poll, albeit at a mere 0.02 weight, Trump led by +10.

Supposedly that 10-point advantage is to the detriment of Trump.

Weighted Average of Polls

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