Current Uptrend More Than a Bear Market Rally

by Urban Carmel
Financial Sense

Summary: As of last Friday, equities rose for a fifth week in a row. In many important ways, the current uptrend does not fit the profile of a bear market rally. That means that further gains lie ahead and a return to the February low is unlikely. On a shorter timeframe, there are several compelling reasons to expect a retracement of recent gains in the days ahead.

Equities continued to rally for the fifth week in a row. SPY has risen 11 of the past 14 days. SPY, NDX and RUT all gained over 1% for the week. Emerging markets gained 3%.

Safe havens—treasuries and gold—which had been in high demand during the sell-off in equities, also gained. Treasuries had sold off the past 4 weeks in a row but gained just over 1% last week. Gold was up just 0.3%.

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