If the Polls Are Exactly as Flawed as They Were in 2016, This Election Will Come Right Down to the Wire

by Michael Snyder
The Economic Collapse Blog

Do you think that you know who will win the election? Well, forecasting who will win elections is what the folks over at Fivethirtyeight do for a living, and in 2016 they told us on Election Day that Hillary Clinton had a 67 percent chance of winning. Needless to say, they were widely mocked when Trump was victorious, but that didn’t stop them. Today, Fivethirtyeight is projecting that Joe Biden has an 87 percent chance of winning this election, and that is a number that has stayed fairly stable in recent weeks. But of course their projections are primarily based on the same state polls that were deeply flawed in 2016, and so there is a very real possibility that they will be embarrassed once again in 2020.

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