How the CARES Act is Still Kicking the Can

by Doug French

During Real Vision’s Daily Briefing of August 13, Ed Harrison asked rhetorically, “How is it possible for you to have a bull market, a new leg up in the business cycle when bank stocks, the traditional value cyclical trade are 30% off their highs? That’s not a signal of bull, it’s a signal of secular stagnation.”

The stagnation is there, just no one can see it. The August 7 Grant’s Interest Rate Observer quotes “a knowledgeable friend” concerning the banks: “Right now, if you look at the underlying data on consumer delinquencies, you don’t see a recession at all.” Grant’s’s friend goes on to say that home prices have stayed afloat, credit card bills are being serviced, auto prices are going up, as are consumer savings. “You see nothing that looks like a recession,” the anonymous source said, “but it is coming.”

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