by James Rickards
The drumbeat of polls showing Biden with a big lead over Trump is unrelenting. The RealClear Politics poll (actually an average of many different polls; a good statistical technique) shows Biden with an 8.6-point lead over Trump (49.3% for Biden versus 40.7% for Trump).
Of course, national polls don’t mean much because the U.S. does not have national elections, we have state-by-state votes for Electoral College electors.
But a lead of over 8-points is significant; even adjusting for skew and other biases, that puts Biden firmly in the lead. At the level of swing states (where it really does matter), Biden also dominates. His lead is 6-points in Wisconsin, 6.4-points in Florida, and 7-points in Pennsylvania.