by Steve Goldstein
After Tuesday’s rally on better-than-expected retail sales figures and an encouraging study of a drug to treat coronavirus patients, the S&P 500 has rallied 40% from its closing low and is down just 8% from its February peak.
Clearly, disasters aren’t necessarily devastating to financial markets. That’s worth bearing in mind when considering a new report from Deutsche Bank that looked at the next massive tail risk for markets.
Analysts, led by Henry Allen, say there is at least a one-in-three chance that at least one of four major tail risks will occur within the next decade: a major influenza pandemic killing more than two million people; a globally catastrophic volcanic eruption; a major solar flare; or a global war. (The current COVID-19 pandemic has killed 443,765 globally already.)