by Karl Denninger
Presume the following, all of which are facts:
1. CDC says we have 10x as many people who have had Coronavirus as were tested (e.g. for every symptomatic tested we have 10 who never were and are either asymptomatic or think it’s something else — they sneeze, etc) By the way, they really do say this — that’s not conjecture on my part although I’ve been pointing out that by the math this was nearly certain to be the case since March.
2. We know there is material cross-immunity. We knew this in February (Diamond Princess) The exact percentage of such cross-immunity was not known (and still isn’t) but reasonable estimates were around 50% initially, and have remained there as more data has been developed. Specifically, there is no evidence that material community spread is maintainable once 20% of any given population has had it. This has held up on a worldwide basis.
3. NY has recorded 390,000 positives. Multiply by 10, that’s 3.9 million people. This is almost-exactly 20% of the population.
4. If 50%, more or less, have cross-immunity the remaining susceptible population is approximately 30%.