by Karl Denninger
Market-Ticker.org
Basic math:
There are 130,689 positive tests for Coronavirus in NY.
Of that 30,203 people have been hospitalized for Coronavirus (cumulative)
We know about half of Coronavirus infections are asymptomatic, so they are neither tested or admitted to the hospital.
So the basic risk of being hospitalized with Coronavirus, ignoring those who have symptoms but are not serious enough to be tested (we do not know how large this number is but it’s not zero) is: 0.23 (rate of positives .vs. admissions) * 0.5 (silent infections) = 0.12 or 12%.
NY does not report cumulative ICU admissions but the current hospital and ICU numbers are available. That is about 25%. In other words if admitted about a quarter go on to need ICU treatment.