by Karl Denninger
CNBC is at it again with the “oh no, the hospitals will overload!”
Folks, here are the facts in the US:
1. About 15% of the tested are positive. To be tested you must be symptomatic (or have a lot of money and/or power) Note that the test has a roughly 30% false negative rate (you’re positive, it misses it) so none of these cases wind up being considered for admission as Coronavirus cases. These presumably all recover without admission, plus all those who are true negatives.
2. Of that 15% which test positive 12% (CDC numbers) meet criteria to be hospitialized. Note that of these exactly zero require an actual hospital bed at that stage; oral medication and monitoring every few hours can be done anywhere, by anyone.
3. Of the 12% about one quarter wind up requiring an ICU. Now we’re truly in the “hospital required” category. Invasive procedures (vent, whether positive pressure mask or intubation) or critical monitoring (e.g. heartbeat, SpO2 on an “always-on” rather than spot-check basis, etc) This is also where IV feeding and hydration come into it because you literally have no choice; with a positive pressure vent required to breathe or a tube down your throat you can neither eat or drink.