by Karl Denninger
It’s simple folks.
If you want the whole story and why it has to be true then listen to the postcast.
It’ll be up shortly.
Simply put, it’s this — R0 is likely around 3.0 We’re intentionally undersampling, plus test error, so the original estimates around 3.0 look good. Outside edge on that is likely 2.5 +/- 0.1
Social distancing and lockdowns have only reduced it by approximately 0.5 and even with the extremely aggressive “shelter in place” orders we’re only getting another tenth — that is, 0.6. That’s within the margin of error, so the difference between “shelter in place” and “slam closed all restaurants, bars, groups larger than 50, 10, 2 or whatever” is only 0.1 which is a statistical ZERO.