by Karl Denninger
Market-Ticker.org
It’s simple folks.
If you want the whole story and why it has to be true then listen to the postcast.
It’ll be up shortly.
Simply put, it’s this — R0 is likely around 3.0 We’re intentionally undersampling, plus test error, so the original estimates around 3.0 look good. Outside edge on that is likely 2.5 +/- 0.1
Social distancing and lockdowns have only reduced it by approximately 0.5 and even with the extremely aggressive “shelter in place” orders we’re only getting another tenth — that is, 0.6. That’s within the margin of error, so the difference between “shelter in place” and “slam closed all restaurants, bars, groups larger than 50, 10, 2 or whatever” is only 0.1 which is a statistical ZERO.