by Steve St. Angelo
The Global Economy is heading for serious trouble when the disintegration of the U.S. Shale Oil Industry begins, likely within the next few years. With Global GDP growth based on world oil production growth, the main driver has been the U.S. shale oil industry. This is terrible news because the top U.S. shale oil fields are declining ten times the rate as are the world’s mature oil fields.
According to the IEA, the International Energy Agency’s 2018 Executive Summary:
Natural production declines are slowing, but more investment will be needed. Each year the world needs to replace 3 mb/d of supply lost from mature fields while also meeting robust demand growth.
I have seen higher estimates of 4-4.5 million barrels per day of annual production declines from the world’s mature oil fields. Either way, annual oil production declines from the world’s mature oil fields is a tenth of the rate from the top four U.S. shale oil fields.