by Karl Denninger
There’s a 737 — civilian, Ukranian airliner with 180 people on board — that departed Tehran and shortly thereafter, if the video floating around Twatter is authentic, was seen on fire, losing flaming pieces, and crashing. Iran has confirmed everyone who was on board are dead.
The short track and location strongly suggest that nobody other than Iran could have shot it down, assuming it was hit by some sort of air defense weapon. It’s extraordinarily unlikely we hit it, just for those who might be inclined to blame America first, simply due to where it happened — for us to detect it, think it’s hostile and blast it just doesn’t fit with where we are and what we have over there (and where we have it.)
On the other hand for Iranian air defense to have hit it by accident due to a failure to identify it as a civilian, non-hostile flight, is another matter. That’s quite likely. It may have also been a mechanical problem but I ain’t buying that given the video floating around.