by Rupert Hargreaves
Moody’s Capital Markets Research issued a damning verdict on Deutsche Bank earlier this week. In a research report put together by the credit agency’s ‘Analytics’ research division, Moody’s analysts write that Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB) expected default frequency remains at one of the highest levels in the banking industry, despite the bank’s efforts to shore up its capital position.
[…] In the report, Moody’s cites its Expected Default Frequency measure, which is a continuous measure of a firm’s default risk. The firm’s one-year EDF measure increased from 1.05% in January to its all-time high of 2.85% on February 9. Since then, the EDF measure has declined somewhat, but remains volatile, reflecting Deutsche Bank’s lingering financial problems. At present, the company’s current EDF measure is a 1.39%, which is still significantly above the Global Banks and S&Ls group’s optimal threshold level as calculated by Moody’s. The optimal threshold or value at which firms in the Global Banks and S&Ls Group should be flagged for additional review is 1.22%.