from Bill Still
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Good afternoon, I’m still reporting on the Monster Vote appears.
Monster Vote Rears Its Head in Florida – GOP With 11% Lead
Good morning, I’m still reporting on real voting going on in Florida.
The key battleground state of Florida has a huge population of vote-by-mail voters. This includes absentee voters, plus those who just prefer to vote by mail.
Of Florida’s 12 million voters 27.53% prefer to mail in their vote.
This is probably the biggest polling sample available on the Internet in near real-time – that is, it is updated several times a day by the Florida Division of Elections.
It is providing the best-available glimpse at how the election – at least in Florida — is turning out.
So let’s take a deep dive into these numbers. I’ll admit what my assumptions and skews are – and you can argue those – but given my assumptions, the results can now be quantified with some degree of confidence.
Currently, Republican voters lead 42.1 to 38.8%.
All the minor party votes are lumped together and although in some MSM national polls, the total of Johnson and Stein is 10% or more – just as we’ve predicted all along – in the end, that vote will return to closer to it’s historical average of about 1%.
In this extraordinary year, that total may be in the 2- 5% range, but it’s not going to be in the 5 to 10% range.
As we’ve seen over the past 2 months, as those voters abandon their favorite 3rd party candidates, Trump has been the major beneficiary – perhaps by a 70-30 margin.
For example, the RCP average already shows Johnson with 3.3% and Stein with 1.2% of the vote in Florida – for a total of 4.5% of the vote.
However, our vote-by-mail totals show the 3rd-party vote is currently running at 2.52% for all “Other” candidates put together.
Then there are the registered Independents in Florida.
Here is where part of the Monster Vote is lurking – lurking within this “No Party Affiliation” column. In Florida you can register as an independent, and it is about 8 times the size of the 3rd party vote.
There are 82,000 third-party voters and 626 thousand registered Independents.
As of this morning at 6 am, 16.6% of the vote-by-mail ballots that have been cast have come from registered independents.
Now keep in mind, we don’t know for sure for whom any of these vote-by-mail voters have actually cast ballots for, but we are assuming that 10% of Independents will decide for 3rd party candidates – and that is generous – and the rest of the independent vote will be split on a 70/30 basis for Trump.
We also assume that Trump will be the recipient of 70% of those who end up abandoning their 3rd party candidate.
So, let’s factor in those numbers. It’s a guess – but based on the above assumptions, a fair guess.
I’m giving Trump a +4% advantage in the crossover vote. So subtract 2% from the Democrats and add the same amount of votes to the Republicans.
Now, let’s say that 10% of the Independents vote 3rd party. That leaves 287,803 Independent votes to split up between Trump and Clinton. Again, our assumption is that 70% will go for Trump and 30% for Clinton.
Here are the results based on these assumptions:
4.2% – Other
So based on these vote-by-mail results as of 6 am today, this is our estimate of the final Florida vote.
That’s an 11% margin of victory for Trump and anything over a 10% margin in Presidential politics is officially dubbed a landslide.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good Day.
Bill Still is a former newspaper editor and publisher. He has written for USA Today, The Saturday Evening Post, the Los Angeles Times Syndicate, OMNI magazine, and has also produced the syndicated radio program, Health News. He has written 22 books and two documentary videos and is the host of his wildly popular daily YouTube Channel the “Still Report”, the quintessential report on the economy and Washington.
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