from Bill Still
Good morning, I’m still reporting on polls.
UPI Daily Tracking Poll
For the first time since the Democratic National Convention, Donald Trump is now leading Hillary Clinton in a daily tracking poll done by United Press International – or UPI. Trump now leads by 48,2% over 47.7% for Clinton.
Donald Trump has been catching up to Hillary Clinton in the UPI Daily Tracking Poll since he bottomed out on Aug. 6th at 43.14% – 9 days after the Democratic Convention.
Clinton has led Trump by as many as 7 points, but Trump got a huge 10 point bump from the Republican National Convention from July 18-21st.
Clinton’s bump from her convention – July 25-28 – was far less significant – 5% at the most, and some of that was due to Trump missteps.
Clinton hit her high on Aug. 16th at 50.84% – about a 7 point lead over Trump. But in the last 10 days, an impressive turnaround has occurred. Trump has risen 4 and-a-quarter points, while Clinton has slipped 3.1 percentage points – a 7.5 percentage point shift.
Other polls are showing similar results.
In a new Reuters poll – which has always favored Clinton – her lead in just the last 3 days has slipped from a 12-point advantage, to only a 5-point advantage.
In Ohio, Trump and Clinton are tied at 42% each in a 4-way race with 6% undecided, however, Trump has a huge 20-point lead in the independent vote. That means he will get not only the peal-off voters from the other two minor candidates, Johnson and Stein, but the lion’s share of the undecideds as well.
But a new poll in Florida done by Florida Atlantic University shows Trump now leading Clinton by 2 points – 43 to 41 – in that state.
In Florida Trump not only gets 20% of the black vote compared to Clinton’s 68%, but Trump needs only 18% to win. He leads among white voters 49 to 33%.
Trump is doing even better among Hispanics. Among Cubans – which is the largest Hispanic ethnic group in the state, Trump leads 45% to 34.
Trump has cut Clinton’s lead among women to 41 to 45% for Clinton. But as we’ve seen in other polling, Trump holds a significant lead among independent women – 47% to 26.
Trump still holds a commanding 10-point lead with Florida men.
USC Daybreak Poll
The USC Daybreak poll has been rather stagnant of late, showing a lead of less than one point changing hands daily between the candidates.
This may be because their methodology surveys the same people over and over, and so there is not much movement.
The UPI poll surveys new people every day, and adds that into a 7-day rolling total.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.