by Lance Roberts
Real Investment Advice
Another Measure Of Overvaluation
My friend and colleague, Doug Short, regularly posts updates on multiple levels of valuation on the market. To wit:
“Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
- The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more)
- The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more)
- The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more)
- The relationship of the S&P Composite price to a regression trendline (more)
To facilitate comparisons, we’ve adjusted the two P/E ratios and Q Ratio to their arithmetic means and the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite to its exponential regression. Thus the percentages on the vertical axis show the over/undervaluation as a percent above mean value, which we’re using as a surrogate for fair value. Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 43% to 90%, depending on the indicator, up slightly from the previous month’s 42% to 89%.“