from Bill Still
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A new USC/LA Times poll shows not only Donald Trump leading, but pulling away from Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points a day!
The great thing about this LA Times poll is it is a national daily tracking poll, and includes a day-by-day graph from July 10 to yesterday, July 26.
Trump is the red line and Clinton the blue line. Yesterday, Trump was at 47% and Clinton was at 40. Trump went up at least one point from the previous day as Clinton dropped by a point. Remember, this includes the first day of the Democratic convention. She should be going up, not down.
Another interesting factor is that these daily moves do not represent only the raw vote from that day; they are the weighted averages of all responses in the last 7 days. So if it shows Trump going up one point, that means the raw, one-day increase is actually more.
Ok, now, last factor. Notice the gray area. According to the pollsters:
“The gray band is a ‘95-percent confidence interval’. Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.”
In other words, once Trump’s red diamonds go above the gray confidence area, there is a 95% chance that he is unstoppable.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.