Still Report #1067 – Trump 57.5% Likely to Win

from Bill Still

lass=”” >Famed statistician, Nate Silver, has for the first time predicted that Donald Trump will become the next President of the United States.
Silver, in his “Now-cast” election model says that if ballots were cast today, Trump has a 57.5% chance of winning. Clinton has only a 42.5% chance.
Silver originally gained fame predicting probable performance levels of baseball players. Subsequently he started predicting the outcomes of political contests on his website named simply 538 – the number of electors in the electoral college.
In 2008, Silver predicted the winner of the presidential vote in 49 of 50 states, and the winners of every US Senate race.
In 2012, Silver got all states correct. In February 2016, Silver predicted that Donald Trump had a 46% chance of winning Iowa and Ted Cruz had only a 39% chance. That’s probably the way an honest vote would have turned out.
Silver’s model shows Trump taking the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. That would give Trump 285 electoral votes – 15 more than the 270 needed.
Until recently, Silver’s model gave Clinton an 80% chance of winning.
Incidentally, my wife Beth says that she fells sure that Trump will take Michigan as well.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.

Famed statistician, Nate Silver, has for the first time predicted that Donald Trump will become the next President of the United States.
Silver, in his “Now-cast” election model says that if ballots were cast today, Trump has a 57.5% chance of winning. Clinton has only a 42.5% chance.
Silver originally gained fame predicting probable performance levels of baseball players. Subsequently he started predicting the outcomes of political contests on his website named simply 538 – the number of electors in the electoral college.
In 2008, Silver predicted the winner of the presidential vote in 49 of 50 states, and the winners of every US Senate race.
In 2012, Silver got all states correct. In February 2016, Silver predicted that Donald Trump had a 46% chance of winning Iowa and Ted Cruz had only a 39% chance. That’s probably the way an honest vote would have turned out.
Silver’s model shows Trump taking the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. That would give Trump 285 electoral votes – 15 more than the 270 needed.
Until recently, Silver’s model gave Clinton an 80% chance of winning.
Incidentally, my wife Beth says that she fells sure that Trump will take Michigan as well.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.