Examining the ‘Abundance of Strong Data’ From a Realistic Perspective

by Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Partners

Back in January and even into February, the idea of recession seemed no longer so far-fetched. The FOMC and orthodox economists had been claiming since late 2014 that the only economic fate was “full employment” and the satisfying economic conditions that accompany it. Instead, the latter half of 2015 turned uncomfortably close to the “impossible” nightmare scenario. What was totally unrealistic by 2014’s standards was suddenly very, very real and quite close.

Then as quickly as it seemed to rush on, markets abruptly shifted and the world suddenly appeared much less dark. Having flirted with recession and escaped that fate, the mainstream assumes that “it” is all over and that prior expectations should only resume. The message now is that it was far too close for comfort, but thankfully it is now all in the past.

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