by James Rickards
There is something odd going on in the forecasting process around Brexit.
Polls are showing the contest between “Leave” and “Remain” about 50/50, a statistical tie. It’s definitely too close to call. Betting venues are showing the odds of Remain winning at about 75% with Leave about 25%.
How can we explain this huge discrepancy?
There’s an old saying that “A little learning is a dangerous thing.” It means it’s OK to be ignorant of something as long as you know your own ignorance and act accordingly. It’s also OK if you’re a true expert and use your expertise.