The Curious Case of Brexit Polls and Bookies

by James Rickards
Daily Reckoning

There is something odd going on in the forecasting process around Brexit.

Polls are showing the contest between “Leave” and “Remain” about 50/50, a statistical tie. It’s definitely too close to call. Betting venues are showing the odds of Remain winning at about 75% with Leave about 25%.

How can we explain this huge discrepancy?

There’s an old saying that “A little learning is a dangerous thing.” It means it’s OK to be ignorant of something as long as you know your own ignorance and act accordingly. It’s also OK if you’re a true expert and use your expertise.

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