by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk
It’s been a while since I looked at the BLS Birth/Death Model.
I took a look just for grins and I challenge at least one BLS model assumption.
Birth/Death Background
The birth/death model is for the birth and death of businesses, not employees. The BLS assumes there are business startups each month that they do not know about. There are also corporations that go out of businesses and everyone loses their job.
The BLS estimates the number of newly employed and newly unemployed people due specifically to the birth and death of businesses, but only on a seasonally unadjusted basis.