by Nadeem Walayat
Market Oracle
A string of recent opinion polls such as Opiniun giving LEAVE a 19 point lead or ORB’s giving LEAVE a 10% lead are not being reflected by the bookmakers betting odds. And even if we ignore some of these more extreme polls because there is no way LEAVE is going to win by 19% or even 10%, then still as my recent analysis illustrates that LEAVE have been nudging into the lead which is just NOT being reflected by the betting that is still heavily skewed in favour of REMAIN.
For instance LEAVE are currently trading on BetFair at odds of 2.7. Which whilst having come down a greatly from last weeks 3.6 or a month ago’s 4 and the peak of 6! Is still heavily skewed in favour of REMAIN which is trading at just 1.58.
Now compare this against my recent polls analysis that despite excluding the extreme polls nevertheless have LEAVE in a marginal poll lead of 51% against 49%.