Conversations with New York and Atlanta Fed Senior Economists on Their GDP Models

by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk

I had had recent phone and email conversations with senior economists at the New York Fed and Atlanta Fed regarding their GDP forecasts.

The Atlanta Fed calls its model GDPNow and the New York Fed calls its model the FRBNY Staff Nowcast (simply referred to as “Nowcast” below).

The Fed offices are not in competition with each other, although quarter-to-quarter “bragging rights” may be in order. That is my subjective hypothesis, not based on any economist’s statement.

Let’s take a look at the theory as well as possible flaws in the models.

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