by Alasdair MacLeod
Brexit is not the most important problem facing markets, it is mounting problems in the European banks.
But before looking at that systemic issue, I will summarise the Brexit position, from the trenches, in the last few days before the referendum.
In the run-up to Britain’s referendum on 23rd June, the Treasury was tasked with modelling the economy, post Brexit. The result was George Osborn claimed that a Brexit vote could cost every household £4,300. This is the underlying reason that markets, allegedly, are frightened of Brexit.
One suspects that if the Treasury models had suggested there is little cost to leaving, the result would have not been published and George Osborne would have contrived a different argument.