by Doug Short
In this morning’s ADP employment report we got the May estimate of 173K new nonfarm private employment jobs, an increase from April’s 166K, which was an upward revision from 156K. Also, the March number was revised upward from 194K to 201K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the ADP report includes a wealth of information that’s worth exploring in more detail.
Here is a snapshot of the monthly change in the ADP headline number since the company’s earliest published data in April 2001. This is quite a volatile series, so we’ve plotted the monthly data points as dots along with a six-month moving average, which gives us a clearer sense of the trend.