7 of Last 9 Recessions Started in Quarters with Positive GDP

by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk

Think recessions begin when GDP is negative? Think 2 quarters of negative growth are required to start a recession?

If you believe either of those, you are wrong.

The NBER is the official arbiter of recessions in the US. Here’s a list of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contraction Dates by the NBER.

Using start dates I created the following chart.

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