from Bill Still
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Stop the presses, bring in the construction crew quick. We need an emergency ceiling lift again for the Trump Train.
It would be such a hilarious report to cut together pieces of George Will predictions – or some combination of Fox News contributors over the past 6 months – as they continually predicted that Trump had a ceiling of 25%, no 30%, 40 — then he’ll never get a majority! That prediction stuck around for the longest time.
Well, a new Monmouth Poll mostly completed before Cruz and Kasich announced suspension of their campaigns – shows that among likely GOP voters in New Jersey’s June 7th winner-take-all primary Trump just hit 70%, 15% for Kasich and 11% for Cruz.
How can this be possible? Where are all these Trump voters coming from? It’s the sleeping Giant vote. Trump has awakened the American sleeping giant. This block of voters has also been called the Monster Vote.
Even with a heavily-contested race for the Democrat nominee, 11.7% of traditional Democrat voters have turned out for their primary elections so far, nearly double that of the 2012 race.
[insert 2016 turnout]
However, on the Republican side, there has been a record turnout of 17.3% through March 6th. – a record-shattering 94% increase for Republicans over 2012 — and 47% more than the Democrat primary turnout.
This is clearly the Sleeping Giant vote – coming out to defend America after 7 years of Obama.
In a recent study of the Southern States’ primaries this year, Democrat turnout was down 22%, and Republican turnout was up 23%. That’s a 45% swing, which confirms the 47% difference showed in the previous graph – certainly the largest difference – or delta – in modern American voting history.
Now let’s take a look at potential voter turnouts in light of these patterns this year.
President Obama beat Mitt Romney in 2012 less than 5 million votes – a 51% to 48% margin. That was enough for Obama to kill Romney in the Electoral College vote by a 332 to 206 margin.
However, this year, if this new 45% swing for Trump holds through the general election, that would leave the Democrat nominee with 22% fewer votes than last election – or 51 million votes.
However, a 23% increase for Trump’s vote – or 74.5 million votes – a 23.5 million vote victory margin.
That would be 59% to 40% victory for Trump. That would be the largest victory margin in American history. Anyway you slice that, it is a historic blowout — double landslide — that probably brings Trump a 100% Electoral College victory – something never before achieved in American history.
Here are the victory margins over the past 40 years in the raw Presidential vote. Obama’s margin in 2012 was 4.8 million votes.
Obama’s margin in 2008 was bigger – 9.5 million votes – but still puny compared to a potential 23.5 million vote margin for Trump this year.
In 2004, George Bush beat John Kerry by a 3.3 million vote margin, and in 2000, Bush beat Gore by only a half million votes.
Before that, Clinton beat Dole in 1996 by 7.8 million votes, and in 1992, Clinton beat George Bush Senior by 5.8 million.
You have to go back to 1984 when Ronald Reagan beat Walter Mondale by a 17 million vote margin to get close to the projected Trump margin.
Even the legendary 1972 Nixon vs McGovern blowout was only 18 points. And in that election, Nixon won every state in the Electoral College but one – Massachusetts.
So now, Trump’s only job is to figure out who’s voting for him and hold on to them to pull out what may well be the greatest blowout in American political history.
Earlier today, while my report was in production, I got in Larry Sabato’s latest edition of the “Crystal Ball”.
Larry is an old friend of mine. We sat together at several Virginia State Reform Party meetings during the days of Ross Perot. He comes to the opposite conclusion – a Clinton blowout.
I just want to say, Larry, that your conclusions are right using all the traditional metrics. But this is the first year since at least Reagan – and possibly going back to the first William Jennings Bryan run in 1896 that the Sleeping Giant Vote has become a factor. It can’t be measured, it can only be hypothesized, but you’ll have to admit that your traditional data have not been able to create a good predictive model for the Trump effect so far this year, and I think that’s what you’ve been missing. We’ll know in 6 months.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.