by Avi Gilburt
While the GDX did not strike its upside resistance, it may have come close enough to consider it having topped. The question now is how do we view the coming “correction.”
As I noted in my mid-week update on the metals and miners, the toughest part of a new major trend, from an Elliott Wave perspective, is determining where waves i and ii reside, as the targets for waves iii, iv and v are all based upon waves i and ii. And the difficulty is compounded in the metals market since retracements are often so shallow.
Ultimately, if this were a “normal” chart, and I was not concerned about the parabolic nature in which metals react, I would easily classify the current count as topping, or having topped already in wave i in blue, and would be looking for wave ii to take us another month or two to complete.