by BCA Research
Donald Trump is clearly the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, but our Geopolitical Strategy service argues that Trump has a serious probability of winning the presidential election. While we would still put our money on Hillary Clinton winning a head-to-head matchup, the probability gap between the two is not as large as predicted by the “smart money.”
[…] What we call Trump’s “White Hype” strategy – of boosting support for the GOP among white voters – could narrow Clinton’s lead in several important swing states. Pursuing a greater share of the white electorate is a far more rational strategy for a GOP candidate than trying to appeal to the minority vote, a long-term GOP goal that cannot win the election in 2016. In addition, Trump is only a recession, major terrorist attack, or explosive Clinton scandal away from broadening his appeal – and these events all have non-negligible probabilities of occurring. On the other hand, Trump still faces numerous headwinds, including an otherwise massive lack of appeal among independent voters.