from Bill Still
The Trump organization believes that it has a clear path to a 1st ballot victory at the July 18-21 Republican Convention in Cleveland.
According to a delegate chart on the Trump Twitter feed, Trump has 680 delegates – 55% of those needed to nominate on the first ballot – 7 more than estimates by the Associated Press. According to AP, Cruz trails with 411 delegates.
Tomorrow, the Virgin Islands will caucus. 9 delegates are at stake and according to Trump’s estimates they will win none of those. They do expect to take all 58 delegates in Arizona’s winner-take-all primary on Tuesday and 12 of Utah’s 40 delegates, bringing Trump’s total by Wednesday morning to 750 with Cruz falling ever further behind.
Looking down the road, Trump expects to take 66 of New York’s 95 delegates – and maybe more, 15 of Connecticut’s 28, all of Maryland’s 38 delegates, all of Pennsylvania’s 71 delegates, and 10 of Rhode Island’s. So by the end of April, Trump expects to add at least 200 delegates, bringing his total to 950 of the 1237 needed.
In May, Trump expects to win all of West Virginia’s 34 delegates and an additional 23 in proportional contests in Oregon and Washington, bringing his total to 1007.
In June, Trump expects victories also in the two biggest winner-take-all states, New Jersey, 51, and California, 172, and 8 more from New Mexico’s proportional primary – a total of 231 more – bringing him to 1238, one more than necessary to win on the first ballot, and that’s not counting any of the 168 unpledged delegates.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.