by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Based on a single recent poll in which Cruz leads Trump by a single percentage point, Nate Silver somehow concludes in his “Polls-Plus” Forecast that “Ted Cruz has an 81% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary.
Precisely One Relevant Poll
[…] In the only other weighted poll, albeit at a mere 0.02 weight, Trump led by +10.
Supposedly that 10-point advantage is to the detriment of Trump.
Weighted Average of Polls