by Avi Gilburt
While we were watching intently to see if the market was going to take advantage of a further bullish set up this past week, when it broke support, it made it clear that we have likely topped in wave i off the recent lows. However, I have to note that silver has a very uncertain 5 wave structure off the lows, which is why I posted that I was shorting it on Tuesday, with a stop at 16.05.
In fact, by the end of the week, we can even see a 5 wave structure off the recent highs in silver, which is suggestive of the potential that silver can very well see a lower low. This means that silver may finally strike our long term ideal target at 12.75.
However, the GLD and the GDX do not have similar set ups which are quite as clear as we see in silver. So, while I have noted that I see the probability that GLD and GDX have bottomed at approximately 65%, I cannot say that silver is greater than 50% at this time.